August 13, 2018
Day 581 of 1461 days
Dear Co-defendants –
Only 85 days
Yep, 85 days left to the mid-term elections. So, what does it look like for us progressives?
The House of Representatives looks much like it always has. Nate Silver of 538 fame gives the Democrats 228 seats, ten over a majority. This is a fairly old figure with polls going back a month or so. More recent estimates, post-O’Connor in Ohio, allow the Democratic majority to be even bigger – somewhere between 231 and 251 seats. That gives the Democrats, in this updated scenario, a majority of 13-33 seats. The election, still tied in Ohio 12, was significant, because there are currently 60 Republican seats where Trump led by less than the 11 points in Ohio-12. Also, consider that the Republicans threw everything they had into this election, and they won’t be able to do that in actual midterm elections.
The Senate is not so obviously bound for the Democrats, but consider these possibilities, using data from The Cook Report. Basically, there are eight races that seem to be up for grabs; the remainder of the Senate Races, both Republican and Democratic, are fairly stable.
The Senate is now led by the Republicans, 51 to 49 seats. Here are the competitive races for the midterms and the poll numbers.
AZ- Smyrna v MacSally — Smyrna by 6 points
NV – Rosen v Heller – close mixed polls
TN – Bredesen v Blackburn –Bredesen by 3-6 points
FL- Nelson v Scott – close mixed polls
IN- Donnely v Braun — Braun by 1 point
MO – McCaskill v Hawley – close mixed polls
ND – Heitkamp v Cramer – close mixed polls
WV – Manchin v Morrisey – Manchin by 7-13 points
Give AZ, NV and TN to the Democrats. In NV, the Las Vegas vote counts above all else, and this vote is for Rosen; Rosen is also supported strongly by Emily’s List, so she won’t run out of cash. Both AZ and TN look to be easy targets for the Democrats. If you give these three to the Dems, the count is Dems 52 – Reps 48.
WV, which is a surprise, show Manchin leading very strongly; that one also goes for Dems. Score now Dems 53, Reps 47. That leaves FL, ND, MO and IN in play to decide the fate of the Senate in mid-terms.
All of these are close races, and given the tenor of the times, the Democrats ought to prevail in one or two of them. If only one of these four go Democratic, that leaves the Dems with a 50-50 split and, given Mike Pence as VP, gives the Senate to the Republicans. If any one of the remaining three seats goes Democratic, the Senate goes to the Democrats.
So, if you’d like to know where to put your money to support a Democratic Senate and all that that means, give money to Heitkamp, McCaskill, Donnely and Nelson. These four are the pivotal races this year.
Only 85 Days and Local
Oregon’s only Republican on the national stage is Greg Walden of the 2nd district, and he is being challenged by Jamie McLeod-Skinner for the seat. Walden won his last election by 72%, and has a war chest of over $4 million dineros. Jamie McLeod-Skinner has all of $265,000 and still counting. Nevertheless, she persists.
Indivisible Cedar Mill has joined an effort to post-card all 142,000 non-affiliated voters in OR2, stressing Greg Walden’s indifference to their welfare. If you wish to join in this effort, contact me by return e-mail. You can get addresses only, addresses with cards, or complete stamped-postcards along with an address list. We can ship up to 100 cards, but they really must all be mailed!
On the other side of the Columbia, Carolyn Long is running against Jaime Herera-Butler, the Republican incumbent. This is in Vancouver and is close enough to us to allow canvassing support to set things straight in this district, WA3. Herera-Butler won her last two elections in the low 60’s, so she is ripe for a strong effort. Go to http://www.indivisibleor.org/midterms/#wa-03. This site is not quite ready, so soon after the primaries in Washington, but you can select the canvassing and date/time for yourself. Give it a few days, and see what organization is all about.
MONTHLY MEETING
The meeting is set for Wednesday, September 12, at 1750 NW 131st, 97229. Doors open at 6:30PM and the meeting starts promptly at 7:30 PM. Kathryn Harrington, candidate for county chair, has been persuaded to be our speaker; she will be addressing the effectiveness of GOTV tactics. Refreshments, both adult and juvenile. will be provided along with a few tasty snacks.
L’audace, encore l’audace, et toujours l’audace!
Thank you.
John Fox